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miercuri, 23 aprilie 2014

Pareri diferite despre aur

Pe cine sa crezi? Citeste ambele pareri si decide singur! Pe urma te poti uita si la filmul expus, ca sa afli parerea mea. Care este si ea doar o parere, de care poti tine cont sau nu. Oricum, afirmatia urmatoare nu o poate nega nimeni. Cei care au cumparat aur in jur de 1900 de dolari, sperand ca el sa ajunga la 10 000$, au o pierdere consistenta in momentul de fata. Mai precis una de cca. 35%, adica mai mult de o treime din contul alocat afacerii cu metalul pretios. In cifre, din 1000 de dolari alocati s-au evaporat 350$. Din 10 000$ alocati, au disparut 3500 etc. Sincer, faptul ca Martenson continua cu aceleasi argumente pe care le-a prezentat aproape de maxime, imi da un gust amar privind metalul galben, intarindu-mi astfel si mai mult convingerea pe care am expus-o in film. La un moment dat aurul va da de un fund cu siguranta. Acolo merita sa fie cumparat in opinia mea, nicidecum aproape de maxime.

Warren Buffet:
1. “Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

2. “The problem with commodities is that you are betting on what someone else would pay for them in six months. The commodity itself isn’t going to do anything for you….it is an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time.”

3. “Gold is a way of going long on fear, and it has been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money, but the gold itself doesn’t produce anything."

4. “I will say this about gold. If you took all the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side…Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today’s market prices about $7 trillion – that’s probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States…For $7 trillion…you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven Exxon Mobils (XOM) and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money…And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, and you know me touching it and fondling it occasionally…Call me crazy, but I’ll take the farmland and the Exxon Mobils.”

5. “The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.”

6. “What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As 'bandwagon' investors join any party, they create their own truth — for a while."

7. “I have no views as to where it will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won’t do anything between now and then except look at you. Whereas, you know, Coca-Cola (KO) will be making money, and I think Wells Fargo (WFC) will be making a lot of money and there will be a lot — and it’s a lot — it’s a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that."

Jaroslav Machacek/Shutterstock

Using Gold to Protect Yourself In Advance of the Greatest Wealth Transfer of Our Lifetime

A how-to guide
Friday, April 4, 2014, 9:44 AM

Executive Summary

  • The case for gold's manipulated price, and how that can be used to work to your advantage
  • Calculating the "floor" beneath which gold will likely not fall
  • The coming Great Wealth Transfer, which almost certainly will occur in our lifetime
  • How much to invest in gold
  • How to invest in gold
  • Exit strategies: when will it make sense to sell your holdings? And what should you exchange them for?
If you have not yet read The Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Market Manipulation

Before we can address the idea of storing some of your wealth in gold (and/or silver) we have to visit the topic of market manipulation. As many of you are aware this is an area of exceptional controversy, although I am not entirely sure why given the distressing laundry list of recently proven, and often grotesquely brazen, market manipulations performed by big banks in many other market areas.
Big banks have been proven or alleged to have manipulated energy markets, LIBOR, currency markets, the global oil market, and aluminum, among other things and all of these transgressions happened after they got caught engaging in forgery and fraud during the mortgage swindles of 2005 to 2007.
On one side of the manipulation debate, we might place the Gold Anti-Trust Action (GATA) organization alleging constant official manipulation to suppress the price of both gold and silver, and on the other we might place Jeff Christian, managing director of the metals research firm CPM, whose position is that all price movements can be explained by ordinary market forces.
I happen to be somewhere in between those views as I think both legitimate and illegitimate forces are part of the landscape. But I am heavily tilted towards market manipulation as the explanation for why gold (and silver) tend to move downwards violently from time to time and why the prices for each are not higher than they currently are.
The SEC has a clear definition of market manipulation and I’ve reproduced it here but swapped out the words ‘security’ and ‘stock’ with ‘gold’ to make it that much clearer:
Manipulation is intentional conduct designed to deceive investors by controlling or artificially affecting the market for gold. Manipulation can involve a number of techniques to affect the supply of, or demand for, gold. They include: spreading false or misleading information about gold; improperly limiting [or expanding] the supply of gold; or rigging quotes, prices or trades to create a false or deceptive picture of the demand for gold. Those who engage in manipulation are subject to various civil and criminal sanctions.
I also added the two words "or expanding" because that condition also applies to commodities. 
How likely is it that some firms have been trading in gold in such a way as to create a false, rigged, or deceptive picture of gold (and silver) prices?  It’s all but proven in a court of law, but don't hold your breath waiting for that final proof, as the US court system has vigorously defended banks from such lawsuits for decades. 
I also happen to believe that gold is officially suppressed in price because it's what I would do if I were at the helm of the Fed and cared only for bolstering confidence in the dollar specifically, and fiat currencies generally, making the stock market a more attractive alternative, and also lending credence to political and monetary decisions (for the record, I am merely placing myself in the mind of the enemy here). Given that set of mandates, I would order up some hefty gold suppression because gold has a very bad habit of casting a bright light on rotten monetary and fiscal policy. 
Suppressing the price of gold just makes so much sense that I would consider it a form of derelict strategic weakness if the Fed et al. were not doing it.
One of the more important times to suppress the price of gold would be when...
Link spre fundamentalele prezentate de Chris!

11 comentarii:

Gelu spunea...

Aurul este pe trend descendent,Eur/Usd se apropie de 1.4.
Nu este oare dolarul in prag de explozie?

Horea spunea...

Vom afla in curand, Gelu.

Anonim spunea...

Asa ne ziceai si prin 2009-2010 horea , tot curand ...
un cititor

Horea spunea...

Anonim, daca am trai intr-o societate normala, si nu intr-una in care un puscarias ca Nastase poate declara ca merge pe drumul Golgotei, poate te-ai uita si tu mai atent la ce am scris. Precum si la ce s-a intamplat.

Asta pentru ca bursa nu sta in loc. Se misca in fiecare zi. Dolarul se misca si el la fel fata de alte valute.

Ca atare a avut valori dupa cum urmeaza. In 11/6/10=1,1875 fata de euro. In 27/7/12=1,2042. Deci eu vad un dolar apreciat in perioadele despre care vorbesti, din moment ce caderea spre primul minim a inceput in 2009.

Destul de recent am mai avut o analiza in care ama aratat ca dolarul se misca lateral, vorbind si despre posibilitatile pe care le are de la nivele cheie la care a ajuns.

Am spus ce credeam eu=ca se va aprecia probabil de la aceste nivele, dar, ca, in cazul in care le va rupe va trebui sa cada destul de consistent.

De atunci dolarul se invarte tocmai in jurul nivelului amintit, in timp ce Ponta si Dragnea sunt trasi cu barca in apa de 20 de cm.

Citind ceea ce ai scris si vazand ceea ce vad, batjocura pretutindeni, imi dau seama ca imi pierd timpul degeaba. Printre oameni precum Isus Nastse&comp, care te scuipa in fata chiar si atunci cand te trudesti sa faci ceva manat de cele mai bune intentii.

Gelu spunea...

In ceia ce priveste USD si eu sper sa creasca,dar,daca scade sub 79,e semn ca va fora mult in jos...si se pare asa ar vrea,,

Horea spunea...

Aparentele inseala de multe ori Gelu, fapt pentru care eu raman la perceptia pe care am avut-o. Pana la proba contrarie, desigur.

Vali spunea...

O fi vreo asemanare intre Martenson si astia?!


Uite si un Martenson indian. Ca nu doar chinezii cumpara aur in draci...


In ceea ce priveste "investitorii" care au ramas closca pe aur gandindu-se ca va face pui sau cei care au cumparat recent si vazand ca nu vrea repejor inapoi la 2000, urla ca GS sau MS manipuleaza piata....numai de bine!
Mai citesc si aberatii cum ca bancile imping pretul spre 1000 dar in acelasi timp se umplu de longu-ri. Ca cica e mai cu lapte longul de la 1000 la 2000. Pai atunci de ce nu asteptati sa cumparati la 1000 si voi, idiotilor?!
Frustarea e maxima, asta-i cert.
Si pana cand nu arunca si astia prosopul n-o sa vedem bottom.

Horea spunea...

Cam asa Vali! Dar fiecare vede ce doreste sa vada. Cei care sunt maistri viselor, vad vise.

Anonim spunea...

un mare maestru visator e si marc faber ... de vre-o 5 ani incoace vede numai caderi si prabusiri !

Horea spunea...

gigi, te cheama cumva si sorinel anonimul? Sa sti ca nu ma deranjeaza faptul ca tu vezi lucrurile altfel, pentru ca fiecare are dreptul sa le vada asa cum crede de cuvinta. Pornind de la cat il ajuta capul sa perceapa o situatie sau alta. Poate se va adeveri pana la urma ca suntem tolomaci noi astia care vedem o bula imensa.

Ceea ce ma deranjeaza este ca afirmi baliverne. Ca si ieri, la dolar. Acum 5 ani bursa era praf, si Faber nu vorbea despre caderi. Nici nu trebuia sa vorbeasca, eram printre ruine.

De vreo 2 ani, in schimb, a inceput intr-adevar sa vorbeasca despre spargeri de baloane. Care pana acum nu s-au materializat. Asta neinsemnand ca nu avem un balon umflat cu gaze luate din stomac si intestine.

Cu cat va fi umflat mai vartos cu atat va pocni mai tare. Chiar daca Faber a iesit cam devereme cu predictiile sale. La aprecierea superciclica pe care am avut-o, un an doi, chiar trei, devin o faramitura.

Anonim spunea...

gigi si sorinel nu stiu cine sunt dar eu sunt sorinelp inamicul lingaului PSD costel !